学前儿童交通安全教育的价值探析

对学前儿童进行交通安全教育的直接目的是减少交通事故，保护其生命和身体，同时还具有重要的教育价值。基于教育价值的两个方面即教育的个人价值和社会价值，学前儿童交通安全教育的价值主要体现在对学前儿童的发展价值和以学前儿童为中心扩散开来的延伸价值。发展价值是指交通安全教育促进学前儿童的认知、动作、情意等方面的发展。延伸价值是指学前儿童获得的交通安全知识与意识、规则与行为、尊重与利他等对其成为合格的社会公民是一种自然而然的准备，同时在生态系统理论之下以儿童为中心扩散开来的重要他人、社会相关机构和行业等都会发生相应的改变，将最终有利于社会的进步。     

基于Fiducial推断的Bayes验前分布的表示

先验分布的确定与表示是Bayes统计推断的出发点和关键点。提出了一种基于信仰推断 (FiducialInfer ence)观点确定Bayes先验分布的设想 ,有助于解决无验前信息或验前历史信息较少时先验分布的确定问题 ,文中给出了一个实例说明了该方法的应用     

Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

A general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes and conditions for system burn‐in

Burn‐in is a technique to enhance reliability by eliminating weak items from a population of items having heterogeneous lifetimes. System burn‐in can improve system reliability, but the conditions for system burn‐in to be performed after component burn‐in remain a little understood mathematical challenge. To derive such conditions, we first introduce a general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes, in which the component burn‐in information and assembly problems are related to the prediction of system burn‐in. Many existing system burn‐in models become special cases and two important results are identified. First, heterogeneous system lifetimes can be understood naturally as a consequence of heterogeneous component lifetimes and heterogeneous assembly quality. Second, system burn‐in is effective if assembly quality variation in the components and connections which are arranged in series is greater than a threshold, where the threshold depends on the system structure and component failure rates. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 364–380, 2003.     

布尔函数的Walsh谱绝对值分布及其性质研究

提出并研究了布尔函数的Walsh谱绝对值分布.指出布尔函数Walsh谱绝对值分布在仿射变换下的不变性,计算了n(n≤5)元布尔函数的Walsh谱绝对值分布,研究了Walsh谱绝对值分布与Walsh谱支撑和Walsh谱中非零取值个数以及其他一些密码学难题的联系,最后研究了布尔函数的Walsh谱绝对值分布的大小.     

海面空-空无线信道特征

针对海上远距通信场景,基于无人机之间的无线通信链路,对接收功率进行实际测量。在大尺度路径损耗方面,采用对数距离线性模型进行拟合,分析海上远距空-空无线信道特征,获取路径损耗指数,并采用射线跟踪方法进行仿真验证,通过仿真所得信道冲激响应在多径时延和功率方面分析产生接收功率快速变化的原因。分析结果表明,近岸的多径反射会造成接收功率的波动,并且会造成路径损耗的升高。利用三种分布函数对测量数据进行分布拟合,分析海面和近岸两种通信条件下空-空无线信道的小尺度分布特征。测量分析结果表明,小尺度特征受陆地反射影响明显,在距离陆地较远的海面呈现高斯分布特征,而在近陆地处未呈现典型分布特征。     

基于改进遗传算法的防空火力优化分配方法

结合地空导弹部队防空作战的特点,提出了基于改进遗传算法的防空火力优化分配模型,给出了模型求解的方法和步骤,详细阐述了改进遗传算法在防空火力分配中的应用,通过在计算机上仿真运行实例得出了火力分配方案,通过仿真证明本方法运算速度较快,结果精度较高,对地面防空火力分配决策研究具有一定的参考价值。     

材料随机梁的有限元分析

提出一种以柔度为基础的具有随机刚度弯曲梁的有限元公式。在计算过程中 ,用与刚度均值有关的内力近似表示未知内力值。通过蒙特卡罗模拟可示出刚度的一维可靠性密度函数和相关函数 ,可用来估算柔度的均值和协方差函数。最后根据新的公式计算出随机梁的均值和协方差。     

药物效用鉴定的序贯抽样检验方法和条件推导

给出了制定药物效用鉴定的序贯抽样检验方案,对未用的同类药品进行随机抽样,利用抽样结果,对剩下的N-n个样品的性能进行推断,得到判断药品是否失效的抽样方法以及有效的抽样截断方案,在减小抽样量的前提下,准确的判断药物是否有效.并对该序贯抽样性能的优劣与固定样本最优检验方法进行了比较,得到在犯同样错误的前提下,序贯抽样检验的样本量比固定样本最优检验的样本量小的多.     

The NBUL class of life distribution and replacement policy comparisons

Let X and X_τ denote the lifetime and the residual life at age τ of a system, respectively. X is said to be a NBUL random variable if X_τ is smaller than X in Laplace order, i.e., X_τ ≤_L X. We obtain some characterizations for this class of life distribution by means of the lifetime of a series system and the residual life at random time. We also discuss preservation properties for this class of life distribution under shock models. Finally, under the assumption that the lifetimes have the NBUL property, we make stochastic comparisons between some basic replacement policies. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 578–591, 2001.